Friday, January 28, 2011

College Basketball Previews

While this weekend's matchups may not be as sexy as last week's there are some very intriguing games that might go a long way in determining how a team ends up in the conference.  There are four games featuring ranked teams and those will be previewed here.

Game of the Week: Missouri vs. Texas

   Missouri comes into the game on a two-game winning streak, having defeated both Kansas State and Iowa  State handily.  The Tigers come in at 17-3, but two of their losses have been on the road (at Colorado and at Texas A&M by two points in overtime).  Junior guard Marcus Denmon leads five Tigers in double figures with 17.3 points per game.  Missouri uses a 10-man rotation and eight of the ten play 17 minutes per game or more (the other two play 11-12 mpg).  The Tigers average 85 ppg, which is good for fifth nationally and dish out 18 ppg, which is good for sixth in the nation.  Three players could be key factors in the game, besides Denmon. Ricardo Ratliffe, who is second on the team with 12 ppg and seven rpg, will be looked upon to neutralize the Texas big men.  The other two keys are Kim English and Phil Pressey.  English was expected to have a breakout season, but has struggled early in the season and Pressey has come back from an early season wrist injury to be second on the team in assists with nearly four dimes per game.  Texas was featured in last week's preview as well.  The team is led by the frontcourt duo of Justin Hamilton and Tristan Thompson.  Cory Joseph will be the key for Texas in this game.  How he reacts to the "Fastest Forty Minutes in Basketball" will be crucial.  The Tigers love to press and create turnovers after made baskets so how he will be able to handle the pressure will be the difference.  Joseph has only turned the ball over more than three times once and has had some of his cleanest games against UNC, UConn and USC.  Prediction:  Mizzou pulls the road upset: 78-76

Louisville at Connecticut

   The Cardinals come in having won three of their last five, including two buzzer beaters over Marquette and West Virginia.  Louisville is led by Preston Knowles, who averages just over 15 points per game and is hitting 40 percent of his three point attempts.  Two others, Peyton Siva and Chris Smith, are also averagibg double figures.  Siva, who hit the game-winner against West Virginia, is going for nearly 11 points per game and a team-high five assists per game.  Smith averages 10 ppg and leads the team, hitting nearly half of his three pointers.  Three of Louisville's bog men (Rakeem Buckles, Jared Swopshire and Gorgui Dieng) are out with injuries.  The key could be Kyle Kuric.  He is an on and off player, who when he is hot, is able to put up 20 ppg but has also had five games of zero points.  The Huskies rely on guard Kemba Walker and their inside presence, which is helping them average 41 rebounds per game.  Walker is being considered as one of the top two contenders for NCAA POY, averaging 24 ppg, five rpg and four apg.  Big man Alex Oriakhis is the only other Huskie averaging double figures at 11, but leads the team with nine boards per game.  The key could be freshman Shabazz Napier, who is averaging 8.4 ppg and over three assists per game.  Like Kuric, he is hot and cold, going for double digits in six games, including three this month.  Prediction: The Huskies' depth and Louisville injuries help the Huskies pull out a 75-60 win.

 Georgetown at Villanova


   Georgetown has been on a bit of a slide lately, going 4-4 in their last eight and are coming into a hostile environment on Saturday.  The Hoyas are riding a three-game winning streak, however.  They are led by Mr. Do-It-All Austin Freeman, who is averaging over 18 points per game.  The senior guard has scored in double digits in all but two games and has scored 25 points or more in two of the last three.  Georgetown has two others, Jason Clark and Chris Wright, who are averaging double digits.  Clark is pouring in 13 points a game, while wright is averaging over 10 and leads the team with 5.6 assists per game.  Guard play will be the key in this game.  If one guard is having a rough night, there will have to be others to pick up the slack. And if the guards struggle, the frontcourt has to be able to bail them out too.  After knocking off Syracuse on the road, Villanova got blown out in their game against Providence.  Villanova has won two of the three, losing the last to Connecticut on a last-second shot by Kemba Walker.  The Wildcats have three players who average double figures, including two seniors: Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes, both of whom are scoring 15 points per game.  While Stokes leads the team in free throw (94) and three point (44) percentage, Fisher is second on the team in assists per game, with five.  The other player in double figures, Maalik Wayans (13.5 ppg), also leads the team with 5.3 dimes per game. Prediction: Villanova is just too good and wins 80-65

Minnesota at Purdue

   Minnesota, on a four-game winning streak, started that streak with a home win against Purdue.  A key piece from that win, Al Nolen, is out for the season with an injury however and that has caused Blake Hoffarber to take over PG duties.  Three of the Gophers' four losses have been on the road.  Hoffarber is one of three Minnesota players in double digits, averaging 14 points per game.  He not only leads the team in assists with 4.4 per game, but also three-point percentage, knocking in 40 percent of his treys.  Trevor Mbakwe is second in points with 13.4 and leads the team with 10.5 rebounds per contest.  Ralph Sampson III is the other Gopher is double figures, throwing in 11 ppg.  The key will be the play of Mbakwe and Sampson, as they will have to go up against the beasts of Purdue.  The Boilermakers, on the other hand, have been on a bit of a skid lately, dropping three of their last five.  JaJuan Johnson continues to be a beast for them inside, averaging nearly 21 ppg and eight rebounds per game.  Johnson has scored 20 points or more in his last five games.  He is supported by guard E'Twaun Moore, who is averaging 18 ppg.  No other Purdue player is averaging over six points per game.  The key here is for Johnson to continue his hot streak.  Prediction: Purdue pulls out a squeaker, 67-64

Saturday, January 1, 2011

Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma vs. Connecticut

  
   The Huskies could not have gotten a bigger challenge for their first appearance on college football's biggest stage than facing the powerful Sooners on Saturday night at Glendale, Ariz.

   Connecticut's path to Arizona began in 1997, when the school voted to accept the invite from the Big East Conference and upgrade from a I-AA program.

   The 25th-ranked Huskies (8-4) then joined the Big East for the 2004 season -- one year early -- after the Atlantic Coast Conference poached Miami and Virginia Tech in 2003. They earned their first bowl appearance that year, and the Fiesta Bowl will be their fourth consecutive postseason game.

   Oklahoma (11-2) is making its 12th bowl appearance in as many seasons under coach Bob Stoops and 44th overall. Its 25 victories are tied for fifth all-time, and the eighth BCS bowl appearance trails only Ohio State's nine.  Unfiortunately, they have lost five consecutive BCS games -- two for the national championship -- since winning the 2003 Rose Bowl. Two other defeats, the 2007 and 2008 Fiesta Bowls, came when the Sooners were heavy favorites before losing to Boise State and West Virginia, respectively.

   If the Huskies have any hope in winning, their fate will ride on the legs of two-time 1,000-yard rusher Jordan Todman. The tailback had 1,574 yards and 14 TDs to earn Big East offensive player of the year honors and is second in the nation at 143.1 yards per game.

    With the Sooners likely to stack the box in an attempt to slow Todman, there will be pressure on Zach Frazer to keep Oklahoma's defense honest. The senior, though, topped 200 yards just once this season and completed only 52.7 percent of his 222 passes for 1,202 yards and five TDs.

   The Sooners are fourth among FBS teams in passing at 336.8 yards per game, 13th in total offense (478.1 ypg) and 17th in scoring (36.4 points per game).

   Landry Jones threw for 4,289 yards and 35 touchdowns, with receiver Ryan Broyles posting his second straight 1,000-yard season. He finished with career highs of 118 receptions and 1,452 yards to go with 13 touchdowns and is Oklahoma's all-time leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs.

   Five players had at least 26 receptions for the Sooners, and running back DeMarco Murray is one of them. He had 1,121 rushing yards and 14 TDs to go with 69 receptions, 595 yards and five receiving scores.

 Prediction:  As much as I would love to see the Huskies pull the upset, I really don't see them having the horses to do so.  Oklahoma 31-10

Rose Bowl

TCU vs. Wisconsin

  
   TCU didn't get to prove it deserved to play for the BCS title. A victory over Wisconsin in the Granddaddy of Them All could go a long way toward showing that it should have.

   The third-ranked Horned Frogs, owners of the nation's top defense, face a No. 4 Badgers team that reached the 70-point mark three times this season in the 97th Rose Bowl on New Year's Day.

   The Frogs, who went undefeated for the second straight regular season, will make their first appearance in perhaps the most prestigious and storied bowl in college football.  TCU gets to play in Pasadena over a Pac-10 team -- the traditional selection to face the Big Ten representative -- because the Rose Bowl was obligated this year to select a team from a non-automatic BCS qualifying conference if one was eligible and not playing in the title game.

   TCU is allowing averages of 11.4 points, 126.3 passing yards and 215.4 total yards -- all tops in the FBS -- and 89.2 rushing yards, third-fewest in the country. The Frogs' speedy defense, though, should receive its biggest test of the season from the Badgers (11-1), who are tied for fourth in the nation with 43.3 points per game -- same as TCU.

    Scott Tolzien has passed for 2,300 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions while completing 74.3 percent of his throws -- best in the country.
    
   For TCU to keep the Badgers from an eighth straight win -- Wisconsin's seven consecutive victories have come by 26.1 points -- it will have to stop a trio of running backs that has piled up nearly 2,900 yards on the ground.  James White (1,029), John Clay (936) and Montee Ball (864) running behind six All-Big Ten offensive linemen proved far too much for opponents to handle.

   TCU QB Andy Dalton is a 41-game winner as a starter. The senior has thrown for 2,638 yards, 26 touchdowns and six interceptions while running for 407 yards and five TDs this season.
Ed Wesley paces the nation's 12th-ranked rushing attack with 1,065 yards, while Matthew Tucker ran for 694.

   Josh Boyce leads the team in receiving yards with 602 on 33 catches and has six touchdowns, while Jeremy Kerley has 50 catches for 517 yards and 10 scores.  

Prediction: TCU shows it should have gotten a chance to play for the title by shutting down Wisconsin and winning 42-14.

Capital One Bowl

Alabama vs. Michigan State

   A share of its first conference championship in 20 years and a school record for wins apparently wasn't good enough for Michigan State (11-1) earn the program's first BCS invitation, finishing behind fellow Big Ten champions Ohio State and Wisconsin.  So who better to play to see if you belong up there than last year's national champ, right?

   Kirk Cousins comes in with some gaudy stats but will have some challenges in this game.  While he has thrown for 2,705 yards and 20 touchdowns.  But five of his nine interceptions have come in the last four games.  Leading receiver B.J. Cunningham is out after breaking his foot in practice Dec. 18.  Cunningham led the team with 50 receptions for 611 yards and nine touchdowns. Michigan State does have other options, though. Mark Dell caught 49 passes for 761 yards, and Keshawn Martin added 29 catches.

   Running back Edwin Baker ranked third in the Big Ten with 1,187 yards, rushed for 6.1 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns.
   
   Alabama will counter with wide receiver and second-team All-American Julio Jones, who set school records with 75 receptions and 1,084 yards this season. Jones caught seven of Greg McElroy's 19 touchdown passes.  McElroy has thrown for 2,767 yards.

   However, last season's Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, who missed two games due to injury, has been held to less than 100 yards in eight straight contests after eclipsing that mark nine times in 2009.  He has rushed for just over 800 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season.

Prediction: Alabama 24-21

Ticket City Bowl

Northwestern vs. Texas Tech

   Northwestern has lost all seven bowl games it has played since winning its first one -- the 1949 Rose Bowl. The Wildcats (7-5) are making their third consecutive postseason appearance despite losing five of seven games after starting 5-0 for the second time in three years.

   The Wildcats will be without All-Big Ten quarterback Dan Persa after he suffered an Achilles' tendon injury in a victory over Iowa.  So redshirt freshman Evan Watkins, who has started the two games since  Persa went down, will be starting what is probably the biggest game of his young career.  Watkins has thrown for 258 yards, a touchdown and four interceptions in those two games.

   While Watkins will likely target Jeremy Ebert, who led the Big Ten with 919 receiving yards, Northwestern could be without its top three rushers. Leader Mike Trumpy may sit out due to a wrist injury suffered in the Illinois loss, and the Wildcats definitely won't have Persa or Arby Fields, who led the team in rushing in 2009 but recently decided to transfer.  But if Trumpy has to sit, Northwestern can rely on senior Stephen Simmons, junior Jacob Schmidt and true freshman Adonis Smith. Unfortunately the three have combined for only 419 yards and four touchdowns.  Schmidt has all the touchdowns.

   Quarterback Taylor Potts is a big reason Texas Tech is making its 11th consecutive bowl appearance. He's completed 65.9 percent of his passes for 3,357 yards with 31 TDs and nine interceptions. The senior has helped Texas Tech rank eighth in the FBS in passing with 314.8 yards per game while averaging 32.1 points, including 99 over its final two games -- non-conference victories over Weber State and Houston.
   
   Northwestern also must contend with Potts' former teammate at Abilene High School, Lyle Leong. The senior has a team-high 808 receiving yards and is second in the FBS with 17 touchdown receptions.  But he isn't the only big-play threat.  Detron Lewis has a team-best 79 receptions for 803 yards and six scores. Lewis caught 10 passes for 114 yards and a TD in last season's bowl win.

   While Texas Tech is a pass-first team, this is the 11th straight season it has had a quarterback throw for at least 3,000 yards, it may be running backs Baron Batch and Eric Stephens who are the difference in the game against the Wildcats, who allowed 848 rushing yards and 10 TDs over the last two games.

Prediction:  Watkins struggles against the Red Raiders and Potts leads an  aerial attack that ambushes the Wildcats.  Tech 35-14.