Monday, February 28, 2011

Villanova-ND

Villanova at Notre Dame

Notre Dame (23-5, 12-4) has won nine of its last 10, all of which were Big East games. With a victory Monday, it would secure a double-bye in the conference tournament while staying in the thick of the race for the league title.

The ninth-ranked Irish will try to do so as they look to go undefeated at home for the first time in three years.

Ben Hansbrough leads the Irish in scoring with 18 ppg and averages a team-high foour apg as well.  Tim Abromitas is averaging 15 ppg and six rpg.  The third Notre Dame in double figures, Carleton Scott, is pouring in 11 ppg and a team-high seven rpg.

Villanova is doing the opposite of what Notre Dame has done.  The Wildcats have lost four of their past six games and stumbled down the Big East standings after a strong start, just as it did last season. The Wildcats opened 2009-10 by winning 20 of 21 but lost five of their final nine regular-season games.

Leading scorer Corey Fisher has struggled badly over the past two games, totaling 10 points and shooting 4 of 26. Fisher is averaging 15.5 points, but has been held to 12 or fewer in four of the last five contests.  Prediction: Notre Dame 86-77

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Marquette-UConn

Marquette at Connecticut

   It's been a tough week for the Huskies, first losing to Louisville Friday, then this week learning of NCAA sanctions following an investigation of the program since a report by Yahoo! Sports in March 2009 that former team manager Josh Nochimson helped guide recruit Nate Miles to the school, giving him lodging, transportation, meals and representation.

The Huskies will not receive a postseason ban, but the program was hit with scholarship reductions for three academic years, recruiting restrictions, permanent disassociation of a booster and three years probation.  They will also be without coach Jim Calhoun this game, as he will be attending the funeral services for his sister-in-law.

   But what the Huskies will really need to focus on is stopping Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 18 ppg and 6 rpg against them in three career games. 

   The Golden Eagles may need to improve on their 2-9 mark against AP Top 25 teams to gain an NCAA tournament berth. Six of those losses have been by five or fewer points.  Prediction: Huskies win 75-69

Loyola-Valpo

Loyola at Valparaiso 

   This season has been common to recent years for the Ramblers.  A hot start gives them confidence and their fans optimism, but then the conference part of the season rolls around and the fire seems to fizzle out as the season goes along. 

   The Ramblers started the season 7-0 and looked to have a lot of momentum going into their game against national runner-up Butler.  Although the Bulldogs squeaked by, it sent the Ramblers into a bit of a downspiral, as they lost eight of their next 11 games.  While their 15-13 record doesn't exactly knock them out of any postseason race, a win here and against Butler (the third and second place teams) would go a long way. 

   Geoff McCammon leads four Ramblers in double figures at 14 ppg.  Ben Averkamp and Terrance Hill are right behind him at 12 and 11.5 ppg, respectively.  Walter Gibler is the other double digit scorer at 10 ppg.  Jordan Hicks, who broke his foot for the second time in two years, was averaging 12 ppg before his injury in early December.

   Valparaiso is one of three teams in the Horizon League that has amassed 20 or more victories (Butler and Cleveland State are the others).  The thing that has led them to a 20-9 record and 11-5 conference record has been its offense efficiency.  The Crusaders are in the top 75 in scoring, averaging over 73 ppg, 21st in assists with 16 apg and 14th in field goal percentage, hitting 48 percent of their shots. 

   Brandon Wood leads four Crusaders in double figure scoring, pouring in 17 ppg.  He has scored more than 20 points in the teams' last three games.  Next are Cory Johnson (14 ppg), Ryan Broekhoff (11 ppg) and Howard Little (10 ppg).  What is crazy statistically for Valpo is that those four are also the top rebounders, averaging between 4.2 and 4.8 boards per contest.  Little and Broekhoff lead the team at 4.8 rpg a pop.          Prediction:  Valpo wins 81-74

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Bradley-Illinois State

Bradley at Illinois State

  Unlike recent seasons, this one has been a struggle for the downstate teams.  In fact, this is a battle of the last place teams in the Missouri Valley Conference.

   Bradley's struggles are somewhat confusing because they returned four of their starters from last season.  Senior Andrew Warren is leading the team in scoring with 19 ppg and tied for the team-lead with Jordan Prosser for rebounds with 5.4 rpg.  Dodie Dunson is the only other player averaging double digits in scoring, putting in 10 ppg.  One positive for the Braves has been that they have won four of their last six games, after losing 11 straight.

   Illinois State, on the other hand, lost Osiris Eldridge and Dinma Odiakosa from last year's squad, so it was somewhat expected to struggle, but whether it was this much, it is unknown.  The Redbirds have lost 14 of their last 17, including their last six.  After being explosive on offense in recent seasons, Illinois State has only one player, Austin Hill who is averaging over 10 ppg and he is only pouring in 10.6 ppg.  Prediction:  Bradley 67-60

Michigan State-Minnesota

Michigan State at Minnesota

   Talk about battle of the teams on the bubble for an NCAA tournament bid.  Minnesota was expected to be at this point, Michigan State was not.  The Spartans got a HUGE win Saturday against Illinois and will look to get another one, this time on the road when they face off with the Gophers.  Tom Izzo even said himself that "this game (vs. Illinois) was bigger for us than for them.  We needed this one."  But if they are going to end up getting the win, Kalin Lucas is going to need help.  He was the only one with more than nine points in the win vs. the Illini.

   Minnesota has lost five of six and this one proves to eb just as vital for their tournament hopes, as it does for the Spartans.  Turnovers and shaky shooting have been downfalls for the Gophers and they will need Blake Hoffarber and Trevor Mbakwe to keep up their stellar play.  Prediction: Spartans win 80-70

Illinois at Ohio State

Illinois at Ohio State

   After starting the season 24-0, Ohio State has gone on a bit of a rough patch, losing two of their last three, to Wisconsin and Purdue, on the road.  It has been the doings of a red-hot guard that has done them in each time.  Jordan Taylor did it for Wisconsin and E'Twaun Moore for the Boilermakers. Now Illinois is hoping a third guard (Demetri McCamey? Brandon Paul?) will cause the Buckeyes some more problems as they head into their matchup in Columbus.

   I seem to write this every time, but this game is of importance to the Illini, especially after their loss Saturday to Michigan State.  They need at least a split in their final four games (OSU, IA, PUR, IND) to pretty much guarantee them a bid.  One problem for the Illini has been winning on the road in conference, as they have dropped five of seven of those contests. Prediction: Ohio State wins 77-70

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Weekend Predictions

The following with be a bunch of previews, altho shorter than they usually are. Nobody wants to read ridiculously long posts.  Learned that this summer.

Friday

Louisville vs. UConn
   UConn might have turned the corner late in the season with their win against Georgetown.  The Huskies will try to get revenge against Louisville, who beat UConn in a crazy double overtime win at the end of January.  Kemba Walker has been playing ridiculously, going for 31 pts and 10 assists against the Hoyas.  Since that win against Georgetown, Louisville has struggled going 3-3 in their last six games, including a four point win against DePaul.  Preston Knowles (15 ppg) and Peyton Siva (10 ppg and 5 apg) lead the Cardinals. Prediction: UConn 80-75

Saturday
Utah State at St. Mary's
   This is by far the highlight of the BracketBusters matchups this weekend.  It is between the 23rd and 24th ranked teams in the country.  Utah State is 24-3, but has won 19 of its last 20 games.  Tai Wesley (14 ppg, 7 rpg), Brian Wilson (11 ppg) and Brockeith Payne (11 ppg) lead the Aggies.  St. Mary's is coming off of an upset loss to San Diego on Wednesday, one that might knock them out of the rankings.  The Gaels are led by four players who score in double figures: Mickey McConnell (17 ppg, 7 apg), Rob Jones (14 ppg, 8 rpg), Matthew Dellavedova (13 ppg, 5 apg) and Mitchell Young (10 ppg, 5 rpg). Prediction: Utah State wins on the road, 86-80

Illinois at Michigan State
   This game is HUGE for the Spartans.  At 14-11, they might have to win out and win two games in the conference tournament to get into the NCAA's.  What will help MSU is the four more teams in, as well as college basketball being down as a whole.  The Spartans have been uncharacteristically shaky at home, already losing four times, but will need Kalin Lucas and his 16 ppg to win. The Illini are in the midst of possibly their hardest stretch of games this season and have a trip to Ohio State looming after this one.  Prediction: Michigan State wins a needed game, 76-72

Michigan at Iowa
   Wednesday's loss to Illinois might have been bad for the Wolverines, who are fighting for an NCAA berth.  Three of their next four games are winnable, but if they lose here, that might be a killer, one that sends the team to the NIT.  Iowa, on the other hand, is just looking for the season to be over, while also looking to place spoiler to teams like Michigan. Prediction: Michigan 80-67

Northwestern at Indiana
   Like Michigan and Michigan State, a win here is crucial for the slim chance the Wildcats have at a spot in the NCAA.  A win over Iowa put them at 15-10, but they will have to win their last four conference games to go .500 in conference play.  Indiana is not an easy place to play, however, as both Minnesota and Illinois, who were both ranked at the time, lost in Bloomington.  The Hoosiers are 11-5 at home. Prediction: Northwestern pulls out a win they wish could have come easier, 76-73

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Iowa vs. Northwestern

What once seemed like such a promising season for the Wildcats has turned to be the complete opposite. By losing five of their last six games, they have more than likely played their way out of an NCAA bid.  They have allowed at least 49 percent shooting against in their last six games. They are getting out rebounded by almost eight in Big Ten Games. They allow conference opponents to shoot 50 percent from the floor and 39.5 percent on three-point attempts.



 I know it seems as if nothing can go right for the 'Cats, but that is far from the truth.  John Shurna, Drew Crawford and Michael Thompson are still the leaders of this team and when the shots are falling, NU is hard to beat.  Four of the next five games (Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, Penn State) are winnable and if the Cats can get close to that .500 mark and win a game in the conference tourney, that streak of never making it into the NCAA's might end.  But they will need Shurna (17 ppg), Thompson (14 ppg) and Crawford (12 ppg) to do what they do best: score.

Iowa is 10-15, 3-10. They sit just one game behind NU in the conference standings. The Hawkeyes own big three of Matt Gatens, Bryce Cartright and Melsahn Basabe aren’t as explosive as the triumvirate at Northwester, but are more than capable of getting the job done.
    
Basabe averages 10.5 PPG and his 7.0 rebounds per game rank sixth in the conference. He is also fifth in the Big Ten in field goal percentage. Cartright ranks third in the Big Ten is assists and averages 11.0 PPG. Gatens leads the conference making over 90 percent of his free throw attempts. At 12.5 PPG, he is the Hawkeyes leading scorer.  Prediction: Northwestern wins huge 80-65

Minnesota vs. Penn State

Two weeks ago, Minnesota was looking pretty ranked in the top 20 at 16-4.  Fast forward two weeks and the Gophers may ow be on the bubble after losing four of five and dropping to 17-8. 

Trevor Mbakwe scored a season-high 24 points in Sunday's win over Iowa and the Gophers will need more of this to help Minnesota get back on track.  They are going to have get their frontcourt to lead the way, as the health of point guard Blake Hoffarber will be in question as soreness and pain in a knee doesn't just go away like that.  Ralph Sampson III, the other main clog in the middle, is coming off of his worst game of the year, one which saw him score only two points, will be looking to get back to the form that saw him score in double digits in the seven games prior to that.

Penn State, in its own right, might be playing for an NCAA bid.  It's record (13-10) isn't too flashy, but if the Nittany Lions manage to win two or three of their remaining five games, possibly upset Wisconsin or Ohio State and win a game in the conference tourney, who knows what might happen?  As they have been all year, Penn State is led by Talor Battle, who is still averaging over 20 ppg.  Prediction: The Nittany Lions are 16-4 at home, but lose a squeaker, 75-73

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Wisconsin vs. Purdue

Wisconsin at Purdue (Purdue is a 4.5 pt favorite)

Wisconsin is coming off of the win of the year, after derailing Ohio State's route to an undefeated season.  Their 32-10 run was one of the more impressive runs you'll see all year.  Now they're stuck with a tough road game and it will be interesting to see if they regain focus or the high from the upset is still there.

With the win over the weekend, the Badgers have now won eight of their last 10 games, including a seven-point home win over the Boilermakers 15 days ago.  Two players, Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor, are still the only players averaging double figures in scoring, with Leuer at 19 and Taylor at 18.  Taylor has been playing like one of the, if not the, top guards in the nation lately, scoring 30 and 27 points in two of the last three games, respectively.

Purdue's next two games will most likely determine how they finish in the Big Ten, as they host Wisconsin and Ohio State this week.  They have yet to lose at home this season and will be looking for that home court advantage to fuel them to two upsets.  As has been the case all season, JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore lead the team, with pint-sized point guard Lewis Jackson coming on strong as of late.  Prediction: Purdue 79-78

Michigan at Illinois

Michigan at Illinois (Illinois 9.5 favorite)

This game is huge for these two bubble teams, as they both come in needing to win to help improve their stock for the NCAA Tournament.  Michigan comes in on a hot streak, having won five of their last six games, while the Illini have lost six of their last nine, including Sunday's game against Purdue, a game they led at halftime by 15.

Unlike other teams fighting for a tournament bid, three of the Wolverines top four players are either freshmen or sophomores.  Guard Darius Morris leads the team in both points and assists with 15.4 and seven.  Tim Hardaway Jr., sun of legend Tim Hardaway, is having quite the debut season, putting up 13 ppg and pulling down four boards. Zack Novak is scoring 9.3 points and a game and leads the team with six boards a game, while Jordan Morgan is getting nine and four.

Illinois needs to straighten up the ship now, because their time is running out.  The main key is getting Demetri McCamey interested in playing basketball again.  He seems to disappear in games and that's not what a team is looking for from its senior.  Some good things for the Illini is that Brandon Paul, Jereme Richmond, Meyers Leonard and D.J. Richardson are now playing better and the future does look bright.  After scoring in double digits only five times in the teams' first 17 games, Paul has now exploded by scoring in double digits in five of the last eight games, including three 20+ point outings.  Prediction: Michigan pulls out a 78-75 road win

Monday, February 14, 2011

St. John's vs. Marquette

St. John's has put together one heck of a tournament resume in their first year under Steve Lavin.  They're one of the few teams that have defeated four top-15 teams, three of which came in blowouts.

The Red Storm is led by three seniors who average double figures in scoring.  Dwight Hardy leads the team in scoring at 16.6 ppg and also hauls down three boards a game and dishes out two dimes.  Justin Brownlee is scoring at a 12.6 point per game clip and is tied for second with five boards per game.  D.J. Kennedy is the last senior in double digits throwing in 10 ppg and leads the team in rebounding with over five and a half per contest.

Marquette is ending an extremely tough stretch of its schedule, facing eight ranked teams in their last 10 contests.  They've won four of those, but are led by four upperclassmen so it should help them in the future.  Darius Johnson-Odom leads the team with over 16 points per game and is also pulling down three rebounds.  Jimmy Butler is pouring in 15 points a game and second in rebounds with 6.3, while Jae Crowder is putting up 13 ppg and leads the team in rebounding with 6.6 a game.  Dwight Buycks is averaging 10 ppg and leads the team in assists, dishing out four dimes a game.  Prediction: Red Storm wins straight up 75-70

Michigan State vs, Ohio State

Raise your hand if at the beginning of the season you thought Michigan State would have a 6-6 conference record and only a 14-10 record overall.  Ok, you're a liar so put your hand down, but that has been the craziness of this years' college basketball season.  Michigan State has been struggling like nobody's business the last seven games, losing five of them and eeking out a one-point overtime win at Indiana.  The Spartans were expected to challenge the Buckeyes for the conference crown, if not win it themselves. 

Michigan State is led by three players who are averaging double digits this year.  Kalin Lucas leads the team with 16 ppg and is averaging 3.5 assists per game.  Durrell Summers is putting up 13 ppg and over four rebounds per game.  Draymond Green is averaging 13 points per game and leads the team in rebounding, with just over eight per contest.

Ohio State is coming off of its first loss of the season, a road loss at Wisconsin.  The dreams of recreating what the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers did -- the most recent Division I-A team to go through a season unbeaten -- were vaporized by the Badgers' scalding shooting in the second half.

The Buckeyes are led by stud freshman Jared Sullinger, who has probably exceeded everyone's expectations, maybe even his own.  He leads the squad with 18 ppg and over 10 boards per game.  But he is not the only OSU player putting up big numbers.  Three others (David Lighty, William Buford and Jon Diebler) also average double figures, but none like Sullinger.  Buford puts up nearly 14 ppg, Lighty with 12 and Diebler, 11.  Prediction: Buckeyes win big 80-65

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Illinois vs.Minnesota

This is a crucial game for Illinois.  Losing five of their last seven is putting them at great risk of not making the NCAA Tournament, a far cry from lofty expectations the team received early in the season.  It's been a variety of things that has worked out for the Illini, including inconsistent play from its senior leaders, notably Demetri McCamey.  Yes, he leads the team in scoring with over 14 per game, but in three of those five losses, he has not managed to score more than 10 points, twice finishing with five or six points, respectively.  But the struggles don't all fall on his shoulders.  D.J. Richardson, last year's Big Ten Freshman of the Year has struggled as well and of the highly regarded recruiting class, Jereme Richmond is the only one getting a lot of playing time and that has started recently, after Bruce Weber inserted him into the lineup.

The Illini still have a chance to go to the NCAA Tournament, but they will have to start playing up to the expectations placed upon them at the beginning of the season.  Of their eight remaining games, four are at home and four on the road.  Unfortunately, the toughest games (MSU, Minnesota, OSU, Purdue) are the four road games.  They will need to lean on the experience of the seniors (McCamey, Mike Tisdale, Mike Davis).  Davis and Tisdale will be especially crucial, because many of the remaining teams on the schedule have good big men, including this Minnesota team.  Davis is second on the team with 12 ppg and is getting 6.7 boards per game.  Tisdale is averaging nearly 10 ppg and 6.8 rpg.

Minnesota has been on a tough stretch as well, losing their last three games, two of which were on the road.  Good news for the Gophers is that point guard Blake Hoffarber will play against Illinois.  He had been struggling with a sore knee.  He leads the team in three catehories, including points, assists and three-point field goal percentage.  The Gophers' next top players are their two big men, Trevor Mbakwe and Ralph Sampson III.  Mbakwe is averaging a double-double at 13 ppg and 10 rpg, while Sampson pours in 11 and grabs five boards.

Michigan State vs. Penn State

Raise your hand if at the beginning of the season you thought Penn State and Michigan State would have identical 5-6 conference records and MSU with only one more win overall.  Ok, you're a liar so put your hand down, but that has been the craziness of this year's college basketball season.  Michigan State has been struggling like nobody's business the last six games, losing five of them and eeking out a one-point overtime win at Indiana.

Michigan State is led by three players who are averaging double digits this year.  Kalin Lucas leads the team with 16 ppg and is averaging 3.5 assists per game.  Durrell Summers is putting up 13.4 ppg and over four rebounds per game.  Draymond Green is averaging 13 points per game and leads the team in rebounding, with just over eight per contest.

Penn State has been the definition of a cardiac-kid.  It seems like almost every game they play is within 3-7 points.  This game starts a stretch of games which could decide whether or not the Lions make the NCAA Tournament.  After MSU, Penn State still has to Wisconsin, Northwestern and Minnesota, while hosting Northwestern, Minnesota and Ohio State.  It seems as though the two teams in this preview might be ready for an exciting stretch run.

Penn State is led by Mr. Do-Everything Talor Battle, who seems to have been around for 10 years now.  Battle is averaging 20.5 points a game, seven more than the next teammate, five rebounds and three assists.  Jeff Brooks is pouring in 13.5 points a game and leads the team with seven boards a game.  David Jackson rounds out the three double digit scorers with 10.5 ppg and almost five rebounds per game.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Indiana vs. Purdue

The 14th-ranked Boilermakers look to remain undefeated at Mackey Arena and extend the Hoosiers' road losing streak to 14 on Tuesday night.

Allowing 58.0 points per game while going 12-0 at Mackey Arena, Purdue has won three straight at home versus Indiana by an average of 15.4 points. The Hoosiers last won in West Lafayette, 70-59 on March 1, 2006.

The Boilermakers have been on a bit of a skid lately, dropping four of their last seven.  JaJuan Johnson continues to be a beast for them inside, averaging nearl 21 ppg and eight rebounds per game.  Johnson has scored 20 points or more in his last seven games.  He is supported by guard E'Twaun Moore, who is averaging 18 ppg.  No other Purdue player is averaging over six points per game. 

The Hoosiers, however, have not been playing like a team tied for last place.  Over the last four games, Indiana beat then-No. 20 Illinois and then-No. 18 Minnesota at home and fell in overtime at previously ranked Michigan State before failing to secure a 10-point lead in Saturday's 64-63 home loss to Iowa.

The Hoosiers have stepped up on the defensive end during that four-game span, holding opponents to 63.5 points on 39.5 percent shooting.

Coach Tom Crean hopes his squad can remain stingy while trying to snap a 23-game road losing streak against Top 25 opponents since a 77-66 win over No. 13 Iowa on Jan. 13, 2002.
The Hoosiers are playing without their best player, Christian Watford, who is out after having wrist surgery.  Watford was leading the team ins coring and rebounding at the time of his injury.  Two players, Verdell Jones III and Jordan Hulls have stepped up.  Jones is averaging 12.4 points per game, while Hulls is  coming off of a game where he had a season-high 24 points.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Signing Day

For college football knuckleheads, Signing Day is like Christmas.  And that's been seen by not only the  around the clock coverage on things like ESPN, but also sites like rivals and scout, which rank the players starting in their freshman years of high school.  Now I admit, I look at those sites constantly, so I'm not really one to talk but giving out these "stars" is ridiculous.

The stars and rankings given to these kids are what going to ruin the high school sports world, if it hasn't already.  But what is truly sad about it all, is whether it is the kids, the "experts,", coaches or PARENTS that are doing the "pimping out" of the student-athletes. 

To be on one of those sites, someone needs to send in a video of the athlete, so he can be "evaluated" and then given a ranking or star.  A five-star ranking means you are one of the top kids in the nation, a three-star means you are pretty much an average player, while anything lower usually means you are a fringe player.  If a parent or athlete sees they are "only" s three-star and want to get better scholarship offers, which might mean doing anything going from extra lessons from professionals to possibly doing steroids.  The extra push, however, can also burn out the kid. 

The one thing the coaches, parents or kids seem not to realize is that all these stars, rankings and such are all other people's OPINIONS.  There are time where the different sites disagree with how good of a kid is.  I'll give you the example of Missouri, since it's my alma mater and a school that has been known for getting lesser rated kids and getting them to play better than those rankings.  Let's look at the Tigers' last three first round draft picks, Jeremy Maclin, Sean Weatherspoon and Ziggy Hood.  Sean Weatherspoon came to Mizzou as a two-star safety prospect and left as the third-highest tackler in school history with 413 tackles and a two-time All-American.  Maclin was the highest rated of the three, garnering four stars from rivals and three from scout, but was rated the 70th best wideout by scout.  All he did was leave as the school's all-time leader in all-purpose yards, third in career receiving yards and fourth in career receptions.  All in two years.  Hood is now a starter on the Super Bowl-bound Pittsburgh Steelers.

Of the 62 athletes that were given five stars by scout, 11 made it to the NFL or lived up to expectations. That's 17 percent.  Now that may seem a lot, but let's not forget these were cream of the crop kids who people expect to come in and have a big effect on their teams.  Well that wasn't the case for 52 of them.  In a smaller sample size of 26 five stars, the 2006 class also had 11 players that made an impact of play(ed) in the NFL.

Now don't get me wrong, I truly appreciate and respect what all of the analysts who go out all across the country all year.  But my problem is that everyone takes too much stock into these stinking rankings.  Sure, most of the time it turns out to be right, as you see the Alabama's USC's, Florida's, etc. always getting top classes and succeeding.  But what about the schools like TCU or Boise State and up to this year, Oregon?  The rankings are good and all, but they're mainly there to make all the fans and those associated with the program go crazy.  As long as a school gets players they need, that fit their system and those who they feel are perfect for the, who says they won't succeed?